On the trail: 2026 starts to come into focus

Senator Jeanne Shaheen, co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group speaks, during a press conference, in Budapest, Sunday, Feb 18, 2024. Two U.S. senators will submit a bipartisan resolution to Congress condemning democratic backsliding in Hungary and urging its nationalist government to lift its block on Sweden's accession into the NATO military alliance. The resolution, authored by U.S. Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat, and Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican,...

Senator Jeanne Shaheen, co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group speaks, during a press conference, in Budapest, Sunday, Feb 18, 2024. Two U.S. senators will submit a bipartisan resolution to Congress condemning democratic backsliding in Hungary and urging its nationalist government to lift its block on Sweden's accession into the NATO military alliance. The resolution, authored by U.S. Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat, and Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican,... ap file

By PAUL STEINHAUSER

For the Valley News

Published: 11-10-2024 7:01 PM

Votes are still being counted in some states across the country, and some races have yet to be called in the 2024 election.

But in New Hampshire, the campaign spotlight will quickly shift to the state’s 2026 Senate election, which will likely be one of the most competitive and costly in the nation as the Democrats work to regain the majority in the chamber they lost this week.

Part of their game plan will be holding on to the seat in New Hampshire that former governor and incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen has held since first winning election to the Senate in 2008.

Shaheen hasn’t made any comments regarding her 2026 intentions, and any announcement on her potential re-election plans are likely a couple of months away.

But the statement the senator released this week regarding former President Donald Trump’s 2024 White House victory over Vice President Kamala Harris doesn’t sound like it’s coming from a politician getting ready to retire.

“I join the millions of Americans who are deeply disappointed by these results and share their concerns for the future of their rights and freedoms,” the 77-year-old Democratic senator said.

She noted that she’s “proud to continue representing you in the Senate.”

“I will roll up my sleeves and continue working to ensure that the issues that matter to you — including lowering health care costs, creating more jobs, supporting small businesses, expanding access to affordable housing and child care — are always a top priority,” she said.

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A handful of veteran New Hampshire-based Democratic strategists that the Valley News spoke with all expected that Shaheen would likely seek re-election one more time but added that they didn’t think she had 100% made up her mind at this point. One thought that the senator was “likely doing some soul searching.”

In 2002, three-term Gov. Shaheen was narrowly defeated by then-U.S. Rep. John E. Sununu in the Senate election in New Hampshire. But Shaheen returned the favor six years later, ousting Sununu from the Senate in 2008. She won a second term in the Senate by edging former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts — who had recently moved full-time to New Hampshire — in 2014 and comfortably cruised to a third-term victory in 2020.

There’s a chance — if Shaheen eventually decides to move forward with a 2026 re-election — that we could have a rematch of the 2014 showdown a dozen years later.

That’s because Brown, who went on to serve as U.S. ambassador to New Zealand during Trump’s first administration, is mulling whether to launch another Senate run in New Hampshire.

“Scott Brown has made no secret that he is concerned about not only the direction of the country, but also the lack of balance and accountability in the New Hampshire congressional delegation. His days in public service aren’t over, and what and when that looks like remains to be seen, whether it’s seeking elected office or assisting the incoming administration,” longtime Brown senior adviser Colin Reed told the Valley News.

NH to regain FITN positionwith Democrats in ’28?

With the 2024 cycle coming to a close, a new fight will be brewing for New Hampshire Democrats over the state’s longstanding century-plus tradition of holding the nation’s first presidential primary every four years.

The success primary write-in campaign on behalf of President Joe Biden, as well as Harris carrying the state this week in the general election over Trump, could hand New Hampshire Democrats some of the ammunition they need as they fight to keep the state first in line.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) — following Biden’s lead — in early 2023 voted to bump New Hampshire from its traditional leadoff primary role in the party’s 2024 nominating calendar.

But New Hampshire, adhering to a state law that mandates its presidential primary goes first, did just that – which meant the state’s Jan. 23 nominating contest was unsanctioned on the Democratic side.

Biden kept his name off the ballot and steered clear of the state, but thanks to a well-organized write-in effort by New Hampshire’s Democratic establishment leaders, the president easily won the primary over his long-shot challengers.

“The write-in campaign may be the very thing that saves the New Hampshire primary,” said longtime New Hampshire-based Democratic strategist Jim Demers, who helped steer the write-in effort. “I think New Hampshire demonstrated how serious the voters here take our electoral process, and it is good for the future of the New Hampshire presidential primary. The write-in campaign turned out to be a gigantic success.”

The results of this week’s presidential election may also bolster New Hampshire’s case, as it was the only one of the early-voting states in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary calendar (along with South Carolina, Nevada, and Michigan) that the vice president carried.

For the DNC, the primary calendar will take a back seat for now to the election of a new national party chair and officers, which will take place at the upcoming winter meeting in February. A new Rules and Bylaws Committee — the panel that oversees the primary calendar — will occur next summer, meaning robust discussions over New Hampshire’s position in the 2028 calendar are still a ways away.