Some call it a “silver tsunami,” others a “demographic cliff,” but both terms refer to the same effect, and both evoke the disastrous possibilities of what could happen if meaningful steps aren’t taken soon to create the next generation of skilled tradespeople. The good news is that the work has begun.

For several years, advocates have been working with high school students and their parents to untangle the stigma around a career in the trades, which offers a path to independence and entrepreneurship, all without the debt typically associated with a four-year college degree. That campaign’s most recent highlight was on Nov. 15 at NHTI, Concord’s Community College, with a career fair organized by Bring Back the Trades and hosted by Grappone Automotive and Procon and featuring special guest Mike Rowe. The celebrity television host proved a draw—or maybe it was the idea of earning a decent wage while their classmates were amassing tens of thousands in college loans – because the event drew more than 4,000 students from 75 schools who saw employment pitches from 85 companies eager to hire.

Measuring the Problem

ShanaBrunye is the administrative director at Bring Back The Trades, a Rye-based advocacy group that put on the Nov. 15 job fair, and says there are similar events planned for New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts this year that she hopes will build on the success of the first.

“It was our largest event that we’ve ever put on. It clearly shows that the momentum is there, the interest is there. We need to continue to help these companies and these students find each other,” Brunye says.

One challenge is defining “skilled trade,” which can refer to a dizzyingly range of work that includes commercial drivers and diesel mechanics, boilermakers and bricklayers, carpenters and carpet installers, plumbers, and many more. Each job under the umbrella of “skilled trade” carries its own specific trends. That’s why Bring Back The Trades is partnering with plumbing supplier F.W. Webb to conduct research to determine the key factors contributing to the growing skills gap in the trades, workforce trends and looming retirements within specific industries, strategies to promote the trades as career paths, and to provide recommendations.

While the hard data is still being mined, Brunye says a sense of what it will say about the Granite State. “I can tell you that New Hampshire is at a disadvantage when it comes to our aging workforce,” Brunye says. “We don’t have a strong influx of people coming into this state that are coming in to the trades industries, and we have a very high number of high school students graduating and leaving the state, which is a huge problem.”

Matt Mayberry, CEO of the NH Homebuilders Association, knows what the skills gap looks like on the ground. “From talking to builders, we’re behind. We’re so far behind,” Mayberry says. “We are in the middle of this silver tsunami of retirees, and people want to retire.”

Demographers say that in 2030, the youngest of the baby boomers will turn 65. Mayberry says the effects of these mass retirements are already crashing, wave-like, on the construction industry. He sees it when homeowners struggle to hire a contractor, and the lengths contractors go to retain their workers.

Crews often work long days, sometimes including weekends, to meet demand, and employers are paying more than ever to keep their workers. Mayberry worries that it’s not sustainable. “They’re tired. They are just worn,” Mayberry says. “At some point, that guy’s going to say, ‘enough.’”

This is a huge problem for the state’s economy. The construction industry contributed approximately $3.35 billion to New Hampshire’s Gross State Product (accounting for about 3.2% of total GSP in 2022), and an estimated $64 million in federal, state, and local tax revenues in 2022, according to a February 2024 fact sheet, “Construction and Homebuilding in NH,” released by the NH Fiscal Policy Institute (NHFPI). It reported that New Hampshire’s construction industry paid an average wage of $74,268. The Economic & Labor Market Information Bureau, part of NH Employment Security, reported in December that NH’s construction sector added 1,100 jobs between October 2023 and October 2024, employing 32,500 total.

Nationally, there are indications that efforts to recruit younger people to the trades is working. According to a report released in January by Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), “the industrywide workforce has become significantly younger over the past several quarters, with the median construction worker now younger than 42 for the first time since 2011. As a result, the pace of retirements is expected to slow this year.”

However, that rosier assessment is tempered by the construction industry, nationally, needing to attract an estimated 439,000 net new workers in 2025 to meet anticipated demand for construction services, according to the ABC report, and 499,000 new workers in 2026. “If it fails to do so, industrywide labor cost escalation will accelerate, exacerbating already high construction costs and reducing the volume of work that is financially feasible,” says ABC Chief Economist AnirbanBasu, warning contractors will struggle to fill open positions. “Average hourly earnings throughout the industry are up 4.4% over the past 12 months, significantly outpacing earnings growth across all industries.”

Toolbelts and textbooks

New Hampshire’s demographics prove more challenging for the trades. “The term that people use a lot is the ‘demographic cliff,’ which sounds terrifying,” says Jeff Beard, director of career technical education for the state’s Department of Education. “Essentially, New Hampshire is among the oldest population in the country, but we have more folks exiting the workforce year-to-year than we have folks entering the workforce, simply because we have an aging population.”

When it comes to the skilled trades, Beard says, the average age of workers in NH is in the mid-50s (median age is 43), meaning that there are many more tradespeople preparing for retirement than there are starting their career.

One way NH is meeting this challenge is through the 26 career technical education centers, located within public high schools, that offer a range of classes to help students begin a career in the trades. “Overall, we have about 11,000 high school students taking CTE classes. That’s about capacity for our current system. We are always looking at creative ways to expand access and boost those numbers,” Beard says.

But it’s not easy. Because career technical education is often hands-on, and often includes potentially hazardous tools or materials, class sizes are limited compared to traditional classes. Then there’s the equipment needed to outfit a classroom, and the challenge in finding a teacher who is both experienced working in that trade and who can connect with young people.

Beard says that even once the stigma around the trades is dispelled, there’s still confusion about how a student can get into a particular trade or even which trade they should pursue.

“One thing that’s interesting about the skilled trades is that it has mostly been a family thing,” Beard says. “Educating people about opportunities in the trades is important. If a student wasn’t raised with a tradesperson in their family, they probably wouldn’t have a window into what it’s like to do that work. They also probably wouldn’t know that they could apprentice and earn income while learning.”

Apprenticeships

The concept of apprenticeships is nothing new to the trades, but what is new is how the Community College System of NH is incorporating that learning model. Since 2016, CCSNH has offered the Apprenticeship NH workforce development program, which helps employers to establish apprenticeships and helps students connect with those opportunities.

Anne Banks, apprenticeship programs manager of Apprenticeship NH, says the program worked with a large employer to establish a carpentry apprenticeship program in Manchester in 2021, which is now expanding to two more sites. There’s also apprenticeship programs for HVAC, and multiple tiers of training available for automotive technicians.

“We are looking to expand into masonry and fire sprinkler technicians,” Banks says. “The demand is there.”

Apprenticeship NH is trying to build a pathway for people re-entering the workforce, women eying a job historically male-dominated, people with disabilities, and anyone from a marginalized population. Banks aims for 700 participants in Apprenticeship NH programs by 2026.

“We want to see an increase in all those numbers. We want to make the trades and apprenticeships in all of the sectors an equal option, not an afterthought,” Banks says.

There are challenges to growing apprenticeship programs. For every new apprentice, there must be a mentor, and Banks says that unless a shop already has apprentices, they might not envision it as a possibility, or they might think it’s too complicated to launch.

“Our team can really walk them through the entire process and we support them throughout. It’s easier to implement than people think it is,” Banks says, adding that it’s well worth the effort.

“(For) the people who are committed to it and really embrace the model, it is wildly successful. The employer has the talent pipeline, and the apprentice is getting the best training possible.”

“Manufacturing, those industries that build stuff, have the broadest economic impact,” and tradespeople make the infrastructure necessary to develop the state’s economy, Fabrizio says.

“Now is the time to begin efforts to replenish that workforce.” 

These articles are being shared by partners in the Granite State News Collaborative. For more information, visit collaborativenh.org.